UOB forecasts Vietnam's economy to grow 7% in 2025

A recently released report by UOB raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth this year to 7%, from the previous 6.6%.

UOB forecasts that the USD price will reach 26,200 VND/USD in the third quarter of this year - Photo: QUANG DINH

UOB optimistic about Vietnam's economic forecast

UOB said the upgrade to its Vietnam economic forecast came after the country's economy grew 7.09% last year, far exceeding the market consensus of 6.7% and the official target of 6.5%.

“We expect positive developments from domestic drivers such as manufacturing, consumer spending and tourist arrivals to contribute to activity, especially in the first half of the year,” the UOB report said.

UOB also expects the US government - Vietnam's largest export market - to apply additional tariffs in a more calculated and flexible manner.

In 2025, the National Assembly set a growth target of 6.5-7%, while the Government expects at least 8% or 10% under favorable conditions, creating momentum for double-digit growth in the next period, to become a high-income country by 2045.

Based on the fiscal discipline-focused approach and the way public investment has been disbursed so far, the 8% target seems quite ambitious but there is still room for improvement, according to UOB.

Lots of pressure ahead

On the challenge front, UOB said that uncertainty over the trade outlook will be a major risk for Vietnam in the second half of the year as the economy becomes increasingly reliant on exports, which have risen to a record high of over US$400 billion by 2024, close to the size of its nominal GDP of US$450 billion.

Exchange rate pressures remain. The USD is expected to strengthen further in the first half of the year, following the return of US President-elect Donald Trump. International markets have revised their expectations, with fewer rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), meaning the strength of the USD continues to consolidate.

While the VND is likely to be affected by US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff policy, the trend of the Chinese yuan and the Fed’s interest rate policy, UOB forecasts the USD/VND exchange rate at VND25,800/USD in Q1, VND26,000/USD in Q2, VND26,200/USD in Q3 and a slight decrease to VND26,000/USD in the last three months of the year.

"Given the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate-setting cycle and geopolitical/trade tensions, UOB expects the SBV to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.5%," UOB forecast.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/uob-du-bao-kinh-te-viet-nam-tang-7-trong-nam-2025-2025011220344243.htm