The soaring world gold price caused the domestic SJC gold bar price to increase rapidly and set a new record high on the morning of November 29 at VND 74.5 million/tael (selling price). The domestic gold bar price has surpassed the historical high of VND 74 million/tael recorded in early March 2022.
How will the domestic gold price increase in the coming time from the experts' perspective?
Sharing with VietNamNet reporter, Mr. Huynh Trung Khanh, Vice President of Vietnam Gold Business Association, advisor of World Gold Council in Vietnam, said: Domestic gold price increased due to the sharp increase in world gold price, from 2,010 to 2,045 USD/ounce. If world gold price breaks the level of 2,050 USD/ounce, it can go higher, above 2,080 USD/ounce.
Mr. Khanh gave 3 reasons for the high gold price.
First, in the November meeting, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided not to raise interest rates. It is possible that there will be no increase in December; even around the first or second quarter of next year, the Fed will reduce interest rates.
This will affect the US Dollar Index. It has dropped to 103 points and may drop to 100 points in the future. If the USD falls, gold will rise.
Second, geopolitical instability. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of cooling down; along with the war between Israel and Hamas… could affect the economy and oil prices.
Third, the world's gold demand in the fourth quarter is increasing at the end of the year due to the Christmas, New Year, and Lunar New Year seasons in Vietnam. In addition, central banks buy to increase gold reserves. In 2022, central banks bought about 1,100 tons of gold. In the first 9 months of this year, this organization also bought 800 tons. It is expected that this year, central banks will buy over 1,000 tons.
According to the expert, demand is increasing but supply is not increasing, this affects the price of gold. In the near future, the price of gold will continue to increase.
“If the above 3 factors are reduced, the gold price may decrease. If those 3 factors remain the same, the gold price will increase. The domestic gold price has now broken the old record of 2022; the price may increase further in the near future. If the world gold price reaches 2,100 USD/ounce, the domestic gold price may increase to 76-77 million VND/tael,” Mr. Khanh commented.
However, the Vice President of the Vietnam Gold Trading Association said that it is also possible that the world gold price will reach a high level and then adjust down again. Accordingly, the domestic gold price will decrease, but after a few days it will increase again.
“Gold prices rarely increase all at once, they increase and then adjust before increasing to a new level. From now until the end of Tet, gold prices still have a lot of room to increase,” Mr. Khanh commented.
Meanwhile, sharing with VietNamNet , economic expert Dinh Trong Thinh commented that gold prices both domestically and internationally will decrease in the coming time.
“In the coming time, the world gold price will return to around 2,000 USD/ounce, and cannot increase any further. Therefore, the price of gold in Vietnam will also return to 68-69 million VND/tael, no longer above 70 million VND/tael. Maybe in the next half month or a month, the price of gold will decrease,” said Mr. Thinh.
Who should buy gold now? With the current situation of soaring gold prices, Vice President of the Vietnam Gold Business Association Huynh Trung Khanh recommends that people need to be careful when deciding to buy or sell gold. “Buying gold at this time is very risky; the profit is small and the loss is large. Even selling gold is not recommended at this time because if the price of gold increases again, you will not be able to buy it again,” said Mr. Khanh. For professional investors with a long-term vision, buying gold now to diversify investment channels and shelter from unpredictable fluctuations can be considered. |
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