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Will the corporate bond market recovery continue?

The corporate bond market has been vibrant recently with a sharp increase in issuance value, especially in June 2025, thanks to the leadership of the banking group.

Hà Nội MớiHà Nội Mới02/08/2025

Experts say that this is due to low interest rates and improved credit. From now until the end of 2025, the recovery momentum of the corporate bond market is likely to continue.

Banking group accounts for 75% of total issuance value

According to data from MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS), the corporate bond market in June 2025 recorded excitement with 106 new issuances, with a total estimated value of about 123.7 trillion VND, up 87% over the same period last year, the highest monthly issuance value ever. In which, the banking group continued to be the driving force with more than 98.5 trillion VND, up 103% over the previous month and up 91% over the same period last year, accounting for 80% of the total issuance value.

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Banking is the industry group with the highest value of corporate bond issuance. In the photo: Customers transact at the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam . Photo: Nguyen Quang

In the first 6 months of 2025, the total value of corporate bonds issued reached more than VND 265.8 trillion, up 91.3% over the same period last year. The weighted average corporate bond interest rate reached about 6.8%, lower than the average of 7.2% in 2024. Banking is the industry group with the highest issuance value (accounting for 75% of the total issuance value) with nearly VND 198.5 trillion, up 131% over the same period last year, equivalent to 67% of the total issuance value for the whole year of 2024.

The weighted average interest rate is 5.6%/year, the average term is 4.4 years. Banks with the largest issuance value since the beginning of the year include TCB (VND37 trillion),ACB (VND29.2 trillion), and BIDV (VND17.8 trillion). The real estate group accounts for 15% with a total issuance value of VND40.2 trillion, up 24%. The weighted average interest rate is 10.5%/year, the average term is 2.5 years.

Expert Nguyen Phuong Anh (MB Securities Joint Stock Company) said that the trend of promoting issuance activities of credit institutions shows the need for increased medium and long-term capital, especially in the context of credit growth suddenly accelerating in the last month of the second quarter of 2025 to 9.9% while mobilization interest rates remain low.

Sharing the same view, experts from FiinRatings Credit Rating Joint Stock Company said that credit growth in the first 6 months of 2025 increased by 9.9% and deposit mobilization growth increased sharply, increasing the demand for increasing Tier 2 capital of commercial banks. The corporate bond capital channel also benefits from the low interest rate environment. This also helps reduce pressure on deposit mobilization and creates conditions to maintain low deposit interest rates.

According to experts from S&I Ratings, early repurchase activities took place strongly in the second quarter of 2025 with a value of more than VND96 trillion - the highest quarterly level ever. In the first 6 months of the year, the total repurchase value is estimated at VND123 trillion, up 59% over the same period last year. This development reflects the debt restructuring efforts of issuing organizations when the market has somewhat recovered and the interest rate level remains quite attractive.

Financial pressure of real estate businesses

In the first half of 2025, the volume of maturing bonds was relatively low, reaching about VND56 trillion and mainly concentrated in the real estate group (accounting for 45%). However, it is estimated that the maturity value will increase sharply in the remaining months of 2025 with a total value of more than VND149 trillion; of which, in the third quarter, it was VND77.5 trillion, and in the fourth quarter, it was about VND71.7 trillion. Of this, VND18.4 trillion of bonds had previously been extended.

S&I Ratings experts said that the real estate sector accounts for nearly half of the maturity amount, equivalent to VND73 trillion. In addition to the maturity pressure, the value of real estate bonds with delayed principal and interest payments in the first 6 months of the year is estimated at about VND16 trillion. In addition, the total maturity value of the real estate group in 2026 is still high, reaching more than VND143 trillion before gradually decreasing from 2027. This development shows that financial pressure on real estate businesses will still remain in the next 12-18 months.

On the positive side, the Government's recent efforts to remove legal obstacles for real estate projects will create conditions for businesses to resume project implementation and improve cash flow. At the same time, it will facilitate businesses to open for sale early and have financial plans to repay debt to bondholders. Along with the trend of increasing issuance by banks to supplement medium and long-term capital, the recovery momentum of the corporate bond market is likely to continue in the second half of 2025.

The National Assembly has passed the Law amending and supplementing a number of articles of the Enterprise Law, effective from July 1, 2025, in which enterprises issuing individual bonds must meet the condition of having liabilities not exceeding 5 times the owner's equity. However, this provision excludes a number of specific issuers, including credit institutions and real estate enterprises - two groups that have dominated almost the total market issuance value in recent years. This move is the first step to improve the quality of the corporate bond market, aiming to control financial risks, especially in the group of enterprises with weak capacity.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/da-phuc-hoi-cua-thi-truong-trai-phieu-doanh-nghiep-se-tiep-dien-711177.html


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