According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam's total fertility rate (TFR) has continuously decreased over the past 3 years, from 2.01 children/woman in 2022 to 1.96 in 2023 and 1.91 in the first half of 2024. This is an unprecedented low in the history of population statistics. The trend of having fewer children and delaying childbearing among young people is putting Vietnam at serious risk of rapid population aging and labor shortage in the near future.
Vietnam officially reached the replacement level of fertility (2.1 children/woman) in 2005. However, over the past two decades, the trend of low birth rates has continued to increase. Notably, the birth gap between regions is widening. The Central Highlands and the Northern Midlands still maintain high birth rates, while Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi both have birth rates below 1.5 children/woman - lower than many developed countries.
Chart shows Vietnam's birth rate drops to low level
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There is a significant change in the age at which women give birth for the first time.
Doctor Nguyen Viet Duc - Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Xuyen A Long An General Hospital, said that currently, women getting pregnant and giving birth at an older age than before has been clearly recorded in many studies and statistical reports, especially in developing and developed countries, including Vietnam.
More and more women are coming for prenatal care in their 30s and even 35s. The number of first births among women aged 30-34 and 35-39 is increasing significantly. In contrast, the birth rate among women aged 20-24 is decreasing.
"There has been a noticeable change in the age of first birth in Vietnam. If in the past, women often gave birth to their first child at the age of 22-25, now the common age of giving birth for the first time has shifted to 28-32 years old, especially in big cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Some women choose to give birth to their first child at the age of 35 or older and the number of these cases is increasing," shared Dr. Viet Duc.
There is a notable change in the age of first birth in Vietnam.
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According to the GSO's preliminary statistics for 2024, the average age of first marriage of the population is 27.3, an increase of 2.1 years compared to 2019, in which men get married 4.2 years later than women (29.4 years and 25.2 years, respectively). Women in urban areas get married significantly later than women in rural areas, the difference in average age of first marriage of urban women is 2.7 years higher than that of rural women (26.8 years compared to 24.1 years).
According to Dr. Bui Chi Thuong, Head of Obstetrics, Gia Dinh People's Hospital, the reason why the trend of late marriage, late pregnancy and late childbearing is becoming more and more popular is due to changes in lifestyle, era, and the increasing role of women in society.
"However, late marriage can lead to higher infertility rates because ovarian reserves decrease, uterine diseases increase, especially diseases related to blocked fallopian tubes," said Dr. Bui Chi Thuong.
Risk of population aging and shortage of young workers
According to the results of the 2024 Mid-Term Population and Housing Census, after 5 years, from 2019 to present, Vietnam's population has increased by 4.9 million people. The average annual population growth rate in the period 2019 - 2024 is 0.99%/year, down 0.23 percentage points compared to the period 2014-2019 (1.22%/year).
The aging index in 2024 is 60.2%, an increase of 11.4 percentage points compared to 2019 and 16.9 percentage points compared to 2014. The number of elderly people aged 60 and over is 14.2 million, an increase of 2.8 million people (equivalent to 1.25 times) compared to 2019 and an increase of 4.7 million people (equivalent to 1.5 times) compared to 2014. It is forecasted that by 2030, the number of people aged 60 and over will be approximately 18 million people, an increase of nearly 4 million people compared to 2024.
The aging index in 2024 is 60.2%, an increase of 11.4 percentage points compared to 2019.
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According to GSO, the aging population also poses many challenges to economic growth as well as infrastructure and social security services. In addition, studies have shown that the aging population also has a strong impact on family relationships, lifestyles, social security systems, especially the national pension system.
This is also a common trend in the world. According to the State of World Population 2025 report, the topic of population is receiving more and more attention, along with increasing concerns. The most noted issues include declining birth rates, aging populations and labor shortages... (To be continued)
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/khi-nguoi-tre-ngai-sinh-con-ket-hon-mang-thai-muon-ngay-cang-gia-tang-185250715223417748.htm
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