That is the opinion of expert Can Van Luc, member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, at the 16th annual Vietnam Economic Scenario Forum with the theme "Promoting policy mechanisms, strongly implementing new growth drivers" organized by Vietnam Economic Magazine VnEconomy and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the morning of January 11.
Mr. Luc commented that in 2023, Vietnam's economy will grow by about 5%. Although this is low compared to Vietnam's wishes and plans, it is relatively high in the region.
“ We are about 6% less developed than India, a little less than the Philippines and equal to China. So, we have quite high growth in the region.
In 2024, all forecasts say that our growth will improve. The World Bank (WB) forecasts about 5.5%, most other forecasts about 6%. We are a bit more optimistic, we forecast an increase of about 0.5 percentage points compared to international forecasts ," said Mr. Can Van Luc.
Economist Can Van Luc, member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council.
Commenting on the global economic context in 2024, Mr. Luc said that the world economy will continue to face difficulties, but the advantage is that inflation and prices will continue to decrease. Therefore, there are 4 very big challenges for the world economy and Vietnam in 2024.
First, geopolitics remains very complex.
Second, the risks of finance, currency, debt, and both public and private debt in the world are at very high levels.
Besides, food security and energy security issues are always very big problems for the world, including Vietnam.
The final challenge, according to Mr. Luc, is that both interest rates and inflation and other things like prices are all coming down but are still relatively high.
“ This year, the world economy will continue to grow slowly, at about 2.4%, mainly due to the slowing growth of the US and Chinese economies. However, the EU region is forecast to recover better this year than in 2023, and the world economy will be compensated for that. In general, this year the world economy still faces many difficulties and growth will be at least 0.2 - 0.5% slower than in 2023 ,” Mr. Luc commented.
Analyzing the current economic context of Vietnam, Mr. Luc said that in 2023, our growth rate was relatively good in the region, especially with the very clear recovery signal of Vietnam starting from the end of the second quarter until now, in different fields and economic regions, there are signs of recovery.
Second, Vietnam's macro economy is stable, our inflation rate in 2023 is 3.25%, relatively low. In addition, public debt, private debt, foreign debt, and government debt repayment obligations compared to GDP are at a relatively stable level, especially the prospect of recovery and positive growth.
Third, the story related to foreign affairs, economic diplomacy, and economic integration, Vietnam had a very successful year in 2023.
“ How do we get those three bright spots? I think that in 2023, there will be many special mechanisms and policies to support people. This year, we recommend continuing to maintain similar support policies for people to have a driving force for better development, ” said Mr. Luc.
Expert Can Van Luc believes that in 2024, Vietnam will have many new growth drivers.
The first driving force is digital transformation and application of science and technology, its role is very important.
“ We see that if we do digital transformation well, it will help our GDP grow from 0.65 to 1.35% annually, which means an average of 1% additional growth, ” Mr. Luc cited.
Next, to develop well, Mr. Luc said that Vietnam needs to continue to reform its economic institutions. Our economy still has a lot of room to reform a lot of the business investment environment, especially the fear of making mistakes and being responsible, which if resolved, would also contribute about 0.2% of GDP.
Citing WB research, Mr. Luc also said that if Vietnam does well in green growth and climate change adaptation, it can help GDP increase by 1.8 - 2%.
“ If we do well with new drivers, we can grow by 1.5 - 2% each year. I want to emphasize that we can confidently stimulate economic development without worrying too much about inflation ,” expert Can Van Luc emphasized.
Explaining this statement, Mr. Luc said that inflation in Vietnam mainly comes from two factors: food prices and housing and construction material prices. These two areas account for 70% of Vietnam's inflation index.
The third factor is gasoline, but in 2023, Vietnam's gasoline prices were basically quite stable, so last year's transportation service prices did not push up our inflation.
Thanh Lam
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