In its latest economic update report on Vietnam released on March 25, Standard Chartered Bank forecast that Vietnam's GDP growth in the first quarter would remain moderate, reaching 6.1% year-on-year (6.7% in the fourth quarter).
The bank also kept its GDP growth forecast for the whole of 2024 unchanged at 6.7%, with GDP accelerating from 6.2% in the first half of the year to 6.9% in the second half of this year.
According to Standard Chartered, March data showed signs of recovery after the Lunar New Year holiday, thanks to retail sales. Retail sales growth is forecast to have increased by 9.2% in March compared to the same period last year; exports are forecast to recover by 5.2% compared to the same period last year; imports are forecast to reach 5.0%. The trade surplus may narrow to US$0.8 billion.
Inflation may have risen to 4.2% year-on-year in March (from 4.0% in February). Prices of education services, housing (construction materials) and food have driven inflation recently.
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank shared: “Although the growth in the first quarter is likely to slow down, we believe that Vietnam will maintain its recovery momentum. However, the bank is also cautious about the overall growth in the first half of the year due to challenges from global trade.”
Standard Chartered forecasts the State Bank of Vietnam will keep the refinancing rate at 4.5% until the end of the third quarter of 2024 and raise it by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, amid concerns about growth-led inflation.
TB (according to Vietnam+)Source
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