VNDirect has made a forecast on the interest rate situation in 2024. In particular, it is forecasted that the State Bank will consider cutting the operating interest rate by another 0.5 percentage points in the second quarter of 2024, bringing the refinancing interest rate to 4% and the discount rate to 2.5%.
At the same time, VNDirect also forecasts that the average 12-month deposit interest rate will remain low at 4.5-5%/year and the State Bank will maintain a loose monetary policy to support economic recovery.
The State Bank of Vietnam is forecast to continue to reduce interest rates in the second quarter of 2024 (Photo TL)
However, VNDirect experts also believe that deposit interest rates will remain at rock bottom throughout 2024 as the SBV aims to maintain a low interest rate environment. In addition, the SBV does not have much room to further reduce deposit interest rates in the context of recovering credit demand leading to increased capital mobilization demand of commercial banks.
Regarding the general interest rate, VNDirect forecasts that the average 12-month deposit interest rate will remain low at 4.5-5%/year in 2024. The average lending interest rate will decrease by about 0.5-1% in 2024 thanks to the low capital mobilization cost of commercial banks.
Regarding fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, the USD/VND exchange rate is forecast to fluctuate less in 2024. The VND may appreciate against the USD by about 1-2% due to many factors supporting the VND this year, such as the Fed possibly cutting the operating interest rate or the prospect of attracting FDI capital will become more positive next year.
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