DNVN - Dr. Luong Van Khoi - Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) forecasts many driving forces for economic growth in 2025. Among them are driving forces related to inflation control; growth in the industrial, service and export sectors...
Speaking at the workshop “Investment 2025: Decoding variables - Identifying opportunities” on December 12, Dr. Luong Van Khoi - Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) said that Vietnam aims to achieve GDP growth of 6.5-7% in 2025 and strives for 7-7.5%. In the long term, the Government is determined to achieve double-digit growth when bottlenecks are removed.
“Vietnam is aiming for double-digit GDP growth and there is not much doubt about this story. The core factor lies in improving business performance,” Mr. Khoi emphasized.
Sharing about Vietnam's economic situation in 2024, Mr. Khoi said that the growth results in 2024 will have a big breakthrough, with a forecast growth rate of 7%, regaining the growth momentum before the COVID-19 period. Compared to ASEAN countries, according to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2024, Vietnam will have the highest growth in the region.
Dr. Luong Van Khoi - Deputy Director of CIEM Institute spoke at the workshop.
Over the past year, despite complex and unpredictable geopolitical developments, Vietnam is a market associated with 16 free trade agreements (FTAs) and the world's demand for Vietnamese goods has increased. However, the domestic economic sector has not contributed a large proportion to growth. Leading economic regions (Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria - Vung Tau) are gradually reducing their contribution to the current total GDP.
The Deputy Director of CIEM predicts that the world trend in 2025, the global geopolitical situation will continue to be uncertain and unpredictable. It is even possible that it will become more complicated. The global economic environment will improve or be similar in 2024.
For Vietnam’s five major partner economies, economic growth will improve and decline alternately. A notable factor is that in the coming time, the US is forecast to loosen its monetary policy and other countries will follow this trend. China has also announced that it will loosen its monetary policy at a reasonable level.
For the Vietnamese economy, some drivers for economic growth in 2025 include: inflation remains under control in 2025; all three economic sectors grow steadily, with the industrial and service sectors growing better.
At the same time, people's living standards have changed and the number of international tourists is expected to continue to grow well to help promote domestic market growth. Exports and FDI attraction are still bright spots with positive growth rates.
In addition, the infrastructure is increasingly improved. In particular, highways are extended and expanded to many localities to increase inter-regional connectivity, and the 500kV high-voltage line 3 has been put into operation to help ensure stable energy between regions, especially in the dry season.
The sharp increase in State budget revenue in 2024 is the basis for the State to continue increasing public investment spending and spending on implementing development support policies in 2025. A number of newly issued policies will help form a better institutional framework for economic development, especially new laws issued in 2023 and 2024 such as the Land Law, Housing Law, Real Estate Business Law, and Bidding Law will take effect and be institutionalized in detail.
"Institutional development for 2025 will be more favorable thanks to institutional improvement content with more easily identifiable and observable innovations," said Mr. Khoi.
Hoai Anh
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/dong-luc-nao-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-nam-2025/20241212123040761
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