According to statistics from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), the total seafood export turnover in May 2025 reached nearly 997 million USD, an increase of 20% over the same period last year. In the first 5 months of the year, the seafood industry earned more than 4.34 billion USD, an increase of 22%.
In this positive picture, the US market stands out as a bright spot with export turnover reaching over 234 million USD in May – the strongest increase among major markets, reaching 61%. This is the result of the “sprint” strategy during the period when the US applied a temporary import tax of 10% from April 9 to July 9, much lower than the previously warned level of 46%.
Ms. Le Hang - Director of Communications of VASEP commented that businesses have been very responsive, adjusting their shipping schedules to take advantage of the opportunity. However, the growth in May is only temporary. The biggest concern is still after July 9, when the US may re-impose high tariffs, causing the entire industry to falter.
In the commodity structure, shrimp continued to take the leading position with a total turnover of more than 1.71 billion USD in 5 months, an increase of 32% over the same period in 2024. In May alone, shrimp exports reached more than 415 million USD - the highest level since the beginning of the year.
Pangasius exports also recorded a remarkable recovery. After a decline in April, May turnover increased by 13%, bringing the 5-month increase to 11%. Notably, pangasius exports to the US increased by 35% in May – a clear demonstration of businesses’ flexibility in adjusting delivery plans.
Although tuna products recovered more slowly, they also recorded an increase of 7.6% in May. In the first 5 months, tuna exports reached more than 405 million USD, up 5%. In addition, other product groups such as squid, octopus, crab and shellfish all grew strongly. Of which, shellfish increased by 63%, largely thanks to the Chinese market.
By the end of May, seafood exports to the US reached US$774 million, up 27% over the same period. However, Ms. Le Hang warned that this growth is not sustainable. If after July 9, the US re-applies anti-subsidy tariffs of up to 46%, many Vietnamese businesses will be forced to stop deliveries, leading to a serious decline in orders in the third quarter of 2025.
Worryingly, this high tax rate not only increases costs but also creates the risk of double taxation, especially for small businesses. A worst-case scenario could lead to lost orders, disrupted supply chains, and even unemployment in key aquaculture and seafood processing areas.
Forecasting for the whole year of 2025, Vietnam’s seafood industry is heavily dependent on the tax policy scenario after July 9. If the 10% tax rate continues to be maintained or eliminated, seafood export turnover could exceed the 10 billion USD mark. Conversely, if the tax rate returns to 46%, the total turnover for the whole year could only reach about 9 billion USD – lower than expected and posing many long-term risks.
“Vietnam’s seafood exports are showing a strong and flexible recovery, but sustainability depends largely on developments in international trade policies. In particular, the US decision after July 9 will be a key variable shaping the entire seafood picture this year,” the VASEP Communications Director emphasized.
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/kinh-doanh/tan-dung-khoang-lang-thue-my-xuat-khau-thuy-san-tang-manh/20250625103629785
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